COVID-19 Trends

What Does the World Look Like at the End of Q3?

According to the World Health Organization, Delta is the dominant variant globally and has been reported in 192 countries as of 5 October 20211

Experts widely agree that vaccinations are effective against COVID-19, including the Delta variant

Globally, we’re making progress, but the pandemic is not over yet

  • Global cases as of 5 October 2021 are declining overall, although some geographies are still experiencing a surge (e.g., UK, Russia, Ukraine, Romania all saw increases since prior week1, and in the US, the states of Arkansas and Pennsylvania each had >25% increase since prior week2)
  • Global deaths as of 5 October 2021 show a large decline (>10%) to prior week for all regions except for Americas and Europe which remained similar to prior week1
  • In late September 2021, the US saw COVID become the deadliest disease in history (>700,000 deaths so far vs 675,000 deaths during the Spanish flu in 1918)3

Vaccine hesitancy continues to be a concern for governments and employers

  • Unvaccinated patients are driving hospitalization trends (in the US, approximately 86% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated patients; those unvaccinated hospitalizations drove USD 5.7Billion in preventable cost over the span of 3 months)4

Vaccine inequities continue to be problematic; supply chain and other concerns have slowed access

  • 344 Million doses shipped through COVAX to 144 countries as of 5 October 20215 ; however, latest reports indicate 98% of people in low-income countries remain unvaccinated due to lack of access6

New developments in antivirals and therapeutics hold promise (e.g., new antiviral pill from Merck)

Sources: 1. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---5-october-2021 2. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states 3. https://www.statnews.com/2021/09/20/covid-19-set-to-overtake-1918-spanish-flu-as-deadliest-disease-in-american-history/ 4. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/unvaccinated-covid-patients-cost-the-u-s-health-system-billions-of-dollars/ 5. https://www.unicef.org/supply/covid-19-vaccine-market-dashboard 6. https://www.statnews.com/2021/10/08/how-covax-failed-on-its-promise-to-vaccinate-the-world/

What Impacts have Recent Developments had on Employers?

Delta variant globally has contributed to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, changes in government approaches to mitigation measures, and other impacts to economies and businesses

Delta variant changed the landscape for employer planning

  • Most employers made plans in May/June 2021 to return office-based employees to the workplace in the fall. However, once Delta became dominant (which, in the US, was late June), a large surge in cases ensued and employers were forced to pivot in their planning.

Employers have assumed the role of trusted educator

  • Employers have developed training and communications strategies to influence employee vaccination behaviors

COVID Vaccination Mandates have become a focal point

  • The topic of COVID vaccine mandates has evolved over time during the pandemic. Most employers initially said there would be no mandates due to lack of access; however, in geographies where vaccines have become widely available, lack of access is no longer an issue. That changed the calculus for some companies who began exploring mandates to ensure safety/security of their employees, customers and their business overall.
  • In the US, specifically, the Biden Administration announced on September 9th a 6-pronged Action Plan, which, amongst other things, includes a requirement for all US employers with more than 100 employees to implement vaccine mandates and testing programs, with OSHA to release an Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) shortly that defines the parameters of such programs.
  • Many employers are now preparing to implement vaccine mandates, including tackling difficult questions: - Which vaccination exceptions will be allowed? - Will employees be required to return to the office? - How best to track vaccination and testing? - Will the Employer sponsor testing?

How Is Aon Helping Employers Navigate the Vaccine Landscape?

Aon helps employers prepare to implement vaccine programs and testing programs in compliance with local regulations. This may include:

  • Assessing local regulations and requirements and their applicability to the workforce.
  • Reviewing accommodations policies and procedures regarding vaccinations, testing, and mask wearing.
  • Ensuring appropriate signage and notices regarding safety protocols are posted in the workplace and provided to employees.
  • Developing a written COVID vaccination program that meets regulatory requirements.

Aon helps employers engage with their unvaccinated employees to explore vaccination options. This may include:

  • Arranging for a clinician to answer questions from unvaccinated colleagues.
  • Developing a communications strategy to support effective connection with unvaccinated colleagues.
  • Implementing a technology solution such as Aon’s Employer Planning Platform to track vaccination status - taking data from Workday or other platforms if available and ensuring privacy concerns are addressed.
  • Providing Call Center resources to employer HR teams to support following up with unvaccinated colleagues on their vaccination status.

Aon helps employers design and implement a testing strategy to comply with local regulations and requirements. This may include:

  • Designing a testing program that addresses the employer’s needs and employee footprint.
  • Vetting testing vendor candidates, including assisting with a vendor RFP.
  • Implementing the testing program and monitoring the performance of the vendor(s).

Aon helps employers evaluate their employment practices liability and other liability implications of implementing vaccine mandates. See Aon’s COVID-19 Insights & Resources site at aon.com/coronavirus for more information.

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