The Aon Terrorism and Political Violence (‘TPV’) map provides a strategic overview of insurable terrorism and poltcial violence risks worldwide by country, and in some cases by territory. The ratings are produced annually and, as of 2021, reviewed and updated quarterly.
As a risk map, the scores indicate a judgment on the general probability of exposure to the relevant violent risk events occurring and their likely impact on the operating environment and business activity or assets. Impact assessments also take into account the impact of political violence (‘PV’) events upon the wider environment that in turn may have a negative cumulative impact on risk. The TPV Map risk ratings represent assessments of the unmitigated and prevailing level of risk across all the PV typologies. This means it does not take into account any specific mitigations that different organisations may have, and that at that time of publication the ratings are current with a probabilistic view of future events in the year. As overall country scores, the map is a general high-level guide. It does not capture local variations in PV risk within a given country or territory. Nor does the map capture that some sectors may be more exposed to risk than others. TPV ratings do not indicate or reflect crime or other non-political security risks, or non-violent political risks. The risk rating reflects the severity of risk in each country or territory. Risk rating levels are as follows: 1. Negligible 2. Low 3. Medium 4. High 5. Severe
Peril typologies As well as an overall country risk rating, the map conveys which of the insurable violent risks (or ‘perils’) are present as identifiable or foreseeable concerns within a country. The perils align with Aon insurance products. ● Terrorism and Sabotage (T&S) ● Strikes, Riots, Civil Commotion, Malicious Damage (SRCCMD) ● Insurrection, Revolution, Rebellion, Mutiny, Coup d’Etat, Civil War and War (IRRMCCW) For ease of reference and readability in the supporting analysis for the map, we use ‘civil unrest’ when referring to the SRCCMD Peril and ‘terrorism’ for T&S. For the same reasons, we will usually refer to the specific risk when using the IRRMCCW peril. For example, we will say a ‘war’ or ‘insurrection’ rather than the ‘IRRMCCW Peril’. We do not attach specific risk ratings or scores to perils. Perils are marked on the map when they are an identifiable or foreseeable risk in a country above a low-risk level threshold. So if terrorism is a risk in a country, the T&S Peril icon will appear.
The number of perils identified in a country does not necessarily affect the risk level. For example, a country with severe risk levels due to civil unrest may score a severe risk rating even if other perils such as terrorism or war are absent.
Assessment process and methodology The final risk ratings are quantitative outputs that represent qualitative expert assessments on prevailing and future risk over the year.
The assessments use proprietary Dragonfly methodologies and are based on data and open-source intelligence analysis. Our subject matter experts and regional specialists collate all relevant data and information and submit risk scores with supporting analysis to a senior assessments panel for review. The Aon team and other experts provide peer review to the preliminary scores. The decision on the final risk scores are set independently by Dragonfly and signed off by its Head of Intelligence and Analysis. The assessment process is broken down by risk types. In all cases, we review data on actual activity (e.g. terrorist attacks and plots, incidents of unrest, military activity) over the past year to provide an empirical foundation for the assessments.
We also conduct threat assessments to assess the intent and capability of relevant actors to engage in terrorism or other acts of political violence. The threat assessments inform our judgments on the likelihood and impact of their actions in the country, particularly as it pertains to business interests, assets and general operating conditions. We also assess the overall capacity of the state and other relevant actors to prevent, curtail, mitigate or exacerbate threats and risk-related events and their causes. The Terrorism and Sabotage Peril risk assessment is based upon the activity of known groups and networks operating in a country over the preceding 12 months, as well as a threat assessment. Our proprietary TerrorismTracker database provides the empirical foundation for this. TerrorismTracker is the most comprehensive and current database focused specifically on terrorist incidents and plots that is available for commercial use. It is updated daily making it usually around 12 months more up to date than the GTD START database. The Strikes, Riots, Civil Commotion, Malicious Damage Peril identifies countries that have recently witnessed bouts of violent and nonviolent civil unrest. We draw upon a wide range of data sources and research. This includes incidents over the past year, but more broadly it includes the presence, aims and resources of activist and protest movements, trade unions and other groupings.
We also assess causal and restraining factors, such as breadth and depth of civil society, democratic governance, political and social inclusion, economic and social data and trends, demographics, state agency impunity, use of social media, press freedoms, and other indicators that affect the likelihood and impact of social unrest and civil disquiet. The Insurrection, Revolution, Rebellion, Mutiny, Coup d’Etat, Civil War and War Peril is based upon our analysis of economic, social, and political conditions that have and may continue to cause instability and regime change. We analyse and take into account: ongoing conflicts or unresolved disputes, the presence of armed or paramilitary groups, military deployments and activity, defence spending, a history of coups and mutinies, the presence of factions in the elite or armed forces, and other indicators of general instability and insecurity that can give rise to violent crises.