5

Focus on Credit and Financial Risks Reinsurance

Introduction

Review of market results and expectations going into the 2022 renewal

  • Credit results were (and remain) very different from other lines.
  • Loss ratios below average levels despite economic stress.
  • Profit margins for underwriting years 2020 and 2021 improved as the year progressed.

Clients had conceded on terms in 2021

  • Desire to see those changes reversed.
  • Reinsurers were understanding but effectively non-committal until renewal occurred.

Russia/Ukraine War – Market Impact

The structured credit and political risk market had c.$5 billion of exposure to Russia and c.$2 billion exposure to Ukraine at the start of the conflict across non-payment, non-delivery, and pure PRI perils.

While some loss is expected, there has been a large collective effort by insureds and obligors to understand the impact of sanctions and where possible ensure obligors are still able to pay the debt, meaning any loss is likely to be manageable.

Short-term trade credit exposure may reach $10 billion, although the amount is fluctuating with EUR/RBL FX rate. Trade credit insurers in Russia are reducing exposure in an orderly manner, and there are very few claims being reported, but we expect the impact of exposure reductions and the likely loss amount will become clear by mid-summer.

Global Reinsurance Capital (USD billions)

Sources: Company financial statements, Aon’s Business Intelligence, Aon Securities Inc.

Market trends in 2022

Outcome of January 2022 credit renewals

  • Some insurers sought terms better than those existing in 2020, but very few succeeded, and only those where 2020 pricing was below market standards.

Excess of loss pricing was more robust

  • This was partly a result of expectations of more exposure in 2022 as underwriters forecast portfolio growth.
  • As a result, rates online were stable or even increased, whereas adjustable rates were frequently slightly lower.

The “Cover Gap”

  • Extensions of coverage requested by insurers were not fully met by reinsurers.
  • Reinsurers remain more conservative than the direct market in relation to broader coverage and new products.

April 2022 renewals specifics

  • No signs of reduced capacity despite issues with Russia/Ukraine exposure, but pricing has been impacted.
  • The improvements seen at 1/1 have not been matched at 1/4.
  • Minor changes to Terms & Conditions, largely reflecting long-term results and profitability.

Impact on the direct credit insurance market

  • Very little direct impact at this stage as 2022 treaty programs have mostly been negotiated.
  • Potential marginal price changes in 2023 but very much dependent upon the level of claims between now and the end of 2022.
  • There remain minimal signs of major reductions in capacity provided by reinsurers and we believe this is unlikely to happen in the absence of major losses.
  • Russian, Ukrainian, and Belorussian exposure is being excluded from treaty programs going forward.

Aon's Credit and Financial Risks Reinsurance team

A global client focus with product expertise

  • We listen to clients specific challenges to find proactive solutions.
  • We work closely with Aon’s account executives to ensure we have a consistent understanding of clients global needs.
  • Our global credit network gives access to over 50 credit reinsurance professionals – we are the only global reinsurance broker that has amalgamated all credit-related lines of business to increase client value.
  • Our dedicated credit analytics team provides best-in-class thought leadership across all credit portfolio businesses.
  • The CFR London team has 125 years of combined experience in credit (re)insurance.
  • Globally we place over $3 billion ceded premium to the reinsurance market across credit, surety and mortgage ($1.6 billion of that is placed by the CFR London Team).

Meet the Credit and Financial Risks team

Rupert Evans Head of Credit & Financial Risks +44 7825 948 408 rupert.evans@aon.com

Experience Rupert has led Aon’s Credit & Financial Risks business since June 2021.

Rupert has 10 years of experience in the credit and financial risk reinsurance market, starting his career in underwriting at Liberty Mutual Re. Rupert joined Aon in December 2017 and is responsible for leading the team in London.

Rupert manages clients across the portfolio with a particular focus on structured credit clients, he manages the placement of stand-alone reinsurance treaties covering SRT and other underlying portfolio transactions. He has been a key part of Aon’s development in the SRT space since 2019.

Nick Ayres Chairman – Credit & Financial Risks +44 7798 871 196 nick.ayres@aon.com

Experience Nick is the account executive for a number of our key clients, Nick's experience is invaluable in structuring solutions that meet each client’s challenges with minimal execution risk.

Nick has over 40 years of experience in the market including reinsurance underwriting, surety underwriting, and direct broking experience alongside his reinsurance broking experience.

Nick joined Aon in 2008 and has been instrumental in building the current portfolio of clients. He manages accounts in Asia, Africa, Europe, and North America, including monoline insurers, corporate multi-lines, Lloyd’s syndicates, and Export Credit Agencies.

Ewa Rose Managing Director – Credit and Financial Risks +44 7769 280 980 ewa.rose@aon.com

Experience

Ewa joined Aon in January 2020 and is responsible for some of the principal clients within the team’s portfolio.

Ewa brings over 30 years of market experience and has held senior direct broking and underwriting positions, most recently as the global head of Markel Credit PRI and Surety operation.

Ewa’s breadth of experience brings invaluable expertise to clients across all market segments. Since joining, Ewa has been involved with a variety of global placements including capital solutions business.

Meg O’Malley Senior Account Manager– Credit & Financial Risks +44 7545 412 928 meg.omalley@aon.com

Experience Meg has been a member of the CFR team for over 15 years and has worked in the reinsurance broking market for over 35 years.

Meg is responsible for the placement and management of several large accounts within the team, as well as overseeing the team in the areas of ABConnect, administration, wordings, and compliance.

Kit Harrison Broker – Credit & Financial Risks +44 20 7086 2189 kit.harrison@aon.com

Experience

Kit is a broker in Aon’s Credit & Financial Risks team and assists in the servicing and placement of clients’ treaties.

Kit joined Aon in 2021, having worked in the credit and political risks insurance and reinsurance broking roles since 2011. Kit joined from Gallagher, where his responsibilities included growing the Financial Institutions’ (FI) book of business having previously been on the FI Client Development team at Miller.

Kit holds a degree in Business Management from Newcastle University.

Nicolas Strübig Broker – Credit & Financial Risks +44 20 7086 6137 nicolas.struebig@aon.com

Experience Nicolas is a broker in Aon’s Credit & Financial Risks team and assists in the servicing and placement of clients treaties.

Nicolas joined Aon in November 2021 as a reinsurance broker in credit & financial risk. He has previously worked as an underwriter at Axis Capital for 8 years.

Nicolas holds a degree in International Business Studies from FH KufsteinTirol University of Applied Sciences and a certificate of Advanced Studies in Reinsurance Management from ZHAQ School of Management and Law.

Xander Georgetti Broker – Credit & Financial Risks +44 7824 549 588 xander.georgetti@aon.com

Experience Xander is a member of the broker support team in Aon’s Credit & Financial Risks team and assists in the servicing and placement of clients’ treaties.

Xander is a Chartered Accountant and previously worked in Financial Performance and Analysis as well as Strategy and Planning at Liberty Specialty Markets.

Emma Johnson Account Manager +44 20 7086 2105 emma.johnson2@aon.com

Experience Emma works in Aon’s Credit & Financial Risks team as a member of the Broker Support team. Emma has over 10 years of administrative experience in the insurance sector prior to joining Aon.

Emma acted as Personal Assistant to the Markel Claims Operations team and underwriting assistant to the Trade Credit team.

Ollie Catterall Broker Support – Credit & Political Risk +44 7818 434 336 ollie.catterall@aon.com

Experience Ollie joined Aon on the School Leaver Apprenticeship scheme in September 2019.

Ollie is responsible for assisting the Senior Broker Supports with technical and compliance management of clients’ reinsurance placements, and producing contract documentation.